GameCalc

MTG Mana Calculator

Will your opening hand have enough lands?

Deck Size

Lands in Deck

Cards Drawn

Lands Wanted (at least)

Probability

58.79%

Expected Lands: 2.8
Land Ratio: 40%

What you entered

Deck Size: 60Lands in Deck: 24Cards Drawn: 7Lands Wanted (at least): 3

1
Land density in the deck
24 / 60= 40%
2
Expected lands in the opening draw
7 x 0.4= 2.8
3
Probability of at least 3 land(s)
1 - sum of C(24,k) x C(36,7-k) / C(60,7) for k < 3= 58.7929%

Result

Probability: 58.79%

Chance of drawing enough lands in an opening hand

A hypergeometric calculation over a seven-card opening hand. Land count is the single biggest driver of how consistently a deck functions.

Deck	Lands	Land ratio	Expected lands	At least 2	At least 3	At least 4
60 cards	17	28.3%	1.98	-	30.92%	-
60 cards	20	33.3%	2.33	-	42.92%	-
60 cards	24	40.0%	2.80	85.73%	58.79%	27.92%
40 cards (limited)	17	42.5%	2.98	-	64.93%	-
99 cards (Commander)	38	38.4%	2.69	-	54.80%	-

A 60-card deck with 24 lands draws at least two in the opening hand 86% of the time but at least four only 28% of the time. A 40-card limited deck with 17 lands is a much higher ratio than 17 in 60, which is why limited land counts do not transfer to constructed.

Why 24 lands in 60 cards is the default

A 40% land ratio gives about an 86% chance of at least two lands in an opening seven and roughly 59% of hitting three — enough to cast most early plays without flooding. Decks with cheaper curves shade downward, ramp and control decks shade up.

Drawing without replacement

Card draw uses the hypergeometric distribution, not simple percentages, because every card you draw changes what is left. Drawing a land makes the next one slightly less likely — which is why you cannot just multiply the land ratio by your hand size and get the right answer.

Frequently asked questions

I run 24 lands in a 60-card deck — what's the chance I draw exactly 3 lands in my opening 7?

About 28.7% using the hypergeometric distribution. The chance of drawing 2-4 lands (a generally keepable range) is about 82%, which is why 24 lands is the standard starting point.

How is the MTG mana calculator different from the poker odds calculator?

Both use drawing-without-replacement math, but the MTG calculator focuses on opening hand composition from a known deck, while poker odds focus on completing a draw from an unknown deck. MTG cares about hitting a land count; poker cares about hitting specific outs.

Should I run fewer lands in a Commander (100-card) deck?

No — the math scales. Commander decks typically run 36-38 lands in 99 cards (after the commander), which is the same ~37-38% ratio as 24 in 60. The larger deck size doesn't change the ideal ratio, just the absolute count.

How does mulliganing affect these probabilities?

Each mulligan is a new independent draw (with one fewer card in the London mulligan system). If your chance of a keepable hand is 80% per draw, two draws give you a 96% chance overall — mulligans dramatically reduce mana-screw risk.