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GameCalc
Will your opening hand have enough lands?
A 40% land ratio gives about an 86% chance of at least two lands in an opening seven and roughly 59% of hitting three — enough to cast most early plays without flooding. Decks with cheaper curves shade downward, ramp and control decks shade up.
Card draw uses the hypergeometric distribution, not simple percentages, because every card you draw changes what is left. Drawing a land makes the next one slightly less likely — which is why you cannot just multiply the land ratio by your hand size and get the right answer.
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OpenLast updated: August 2026
Probability
58.79%
What you entered
Land density in the deck
24 / 60= 40%Expected lands in the opening draw
7 x 0.4= 2.8Probability of at least 3 land(s)
1 - sum of C(24,k) x C(36,7-k) / C(60,7) for k < 3= 58.7929%Result
Probability: 58.79%